Water FractalTier 2
at Michigan DTR Regionals
decks
2
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-9-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.8%
avg ELO -5.2 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1402
· median 1402
· range 1265–1538
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1171
Q3 1353
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.7% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.5% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -16.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
